Mega Multiphase Projects Are Alive and Well

It’s true!

But, does it have to be?

Is there no other way?

Apparently not yet.

One recent example is the on again, off again Canadian VIA High Speed Rail Line project.

Over the past 30 years, it’s been stalled by a combination of political inertia and high costs; always being kicked further and further down the road the road of priorities.

The Canadian government announced it’s on again.

This time driven by US tariffs and and opportunity to kick-start the Canadian economy with local demands on steel, aluminum, and other US tariffs targeted materials.

A three mega-phase multi billion dollar project starting with a six year Development Phase that will cost $3.9B for a feasibility study!

WTF?! $3.9B for a stack of paper reports?! Sure sounds like it.

Add that to the preceding 30 years and that’s 36 years of analysis paralysis with nary a shovel in the ground! 

What is wrong with this picture?

Unfortunately, the lack of timely, tangible, and valuable  results seem to be the norm in the world of mega multiphase projects that deliver everything at the end and nothing of any value before then.

Just look at Toronto’s Eglinton Cross-town Light Rail Transit project.

• Mega Schedule: 2 phases over 20 years that started in 2011
• Mega Cost: $13.8B
• Mega Scope: 32 stops over 28 kilometres

Almost 75% of the way through the schedule, here is where Phase 1 is at:

• 41% over budget
• 44% schedule overrun
• Over 260 quality control issues
• Zero (0) operational stops

The CEO’s response shortly before resigning was:

“80 to 90 per cent of transit mega projects worldwide experience scheduling or budget issues.”

Schedule and budget issues are understandable. After all, schedules and budgets are only estimates at best, not guarantees.

What I don’t understand and find more frustrating is having nothing operational to show for the investment after 14 years!

Change One Thing

If I could change one thing with these mega-projects, it would be to demand regular and frequent delivery of customer value from beginning to end and in between.

Value through the lens of VIA or LRT customers. The real users, not politicians or project managers.

What might that look like?

• Split the VIA high speed rail development, construction, and operational phases into smaller sub-phases with part of the line going into operation for VIA customers at the end of every sub-phase.
• Split the Eglinton Crosstown LRT 32-stop mega project into eight 4-stop mini projects with LRT customers able to use and try out the LRT for an additional 4 stops after each mini project.

The greatest benefit of splitting up these mega-projects would be real customers being able to ride the new VIA and LRT trains while the project is still in progress! Seeing a faster return on their tax dollars.

What other benefits might there be?

1. Fail faster. Those 260 LRT quality control issues found after laying down the tracks to service all 32 stops might have been avoided or at least reduced.
2. Continuous improvement. Learnings from early usage and feedback from early users can be integrated into the next sub-phase or mini-project.
3. Increased quality. Resulting from the combination of 1 and 2 above.
4. Lower cost-to-value. Spending less to get some value is better than spending more to get no value. There may even be an opportunity to stop spending once enough value has been reached.
5. Increased transparency. Nothing better than real, usable results to build trust with all stakeholders. Politicians can stop pointing fingers and making excuses.

All this from one Agile-inspired tweak that essentially 

• Converts one big effort into many small efforts

Here are a few other Agile-inspired alternative approaches:

• Run a simulation with a Hudson’s Bay Start
• Build in quality first with Test Driven Development 
• Iterate using Lean Startup’s Build-Measure-Learn cycle 

Is there any hope that the days of mega multiphase projects are numbered?

A comment from a provincial politician regarding the Crosstown LRT fiasco gives me pause for hope…

“The Crosstown experience has changed how the province approaches contracts for transit mega projects. Contracts for the Ontario Line, for example, are broken into more discrete phases, making it simpler for construction consortiums to deliver on time”

So, maybe, just maybe we can start to see the beginning of the end for mega multiphase projects that over-promise and under-deliver.